Thursday, October 11, 2012

IM Triathletes and Ages

I recently read a couple articles on Slowtwitch that contained the writer's picks to win The Ironman World Championship race this Saturday (men's favorites; women's favorites). Actually, these are showings or his take on their odds and they are not necessarily based on previous results as far as I can tell. But the names weren't as interesting to me as the ages, so I did a couple calculations:

The average age of the men in these picks is 33.05; if you subtract the oldest and youngest (28, 40, 40), the average age is 32.58. There is a 12-year spread between oldest and youngest; that spread is 9 years when the outliers* are removed.

The average age of the women in these picks is 31.58; if you subtract the oldest and youngest (30, 45), the average age is 30.4. There is a 15-year spread between oldest and youngest; that spread is 4 years when the outliers* are removed.

* I say outliers, but there is really only 1: Natascha Badmann, aged 45. I think she is in the list only because the writer likes her, she has won previously, and she won an IM earlier this year. I do not think she has a chance at winning, but that's just me.

Here are the lists of racers from the articles:

Age: Name
Age: Name
39: Craig Alexander
36: Andreas Raelert
36: Marino Vanhoenacker
28: Sebastian Kienle
35: Dirk Bockel
39: Chris McCormack
31: Pete Jacobs
32: Jordan Rapp
37: Rasmus Henning
36: Andy Potts
36: Eneko Llanos
32: Michael Raelert
32: Timothy O'Donnell
37: Timo Bracht
33: Frederik VanLierde
33: Ronnie Schildknecht
36: Viktor Zyemtsev
30: Joe Gambles
40: Cameron Brown
34: Faris Al-Sultan
40: Greg Bennett
34: Tom Lowe
34: Caroline Steffen
31: Mirinda Carfrae
34: Leanda Cave
34: Rachel Joyce
35: Mary Beth Ellis
35: Kelly Williamson
34: Rebekah Keat
31: Linsey Corbin
32: Gina Crawford
34: Meredith Kessler
30: Caitlin Snow
45: Natascha Badmann

Basically what this says is that currently, based on only the names in this list, if you are a female Ironman triathlete, your best years will likely be between 30 and 35. Or maybe there just are not that many older females, and some of these ladies' best is yet to come. What it tells me is that the next few years could be some of my best! And if you are a male Ironman triathlete, you have 9 years to do some of your best work.

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